Bayes’ Theorem is a formula for calculating probability based on evidence available. It is demonstrably correct (that’s what makes it a theorem), and many modern institutions now rely on it: its logic underlies gambling odds, insurance calculations, and robot navigation. But it’s results often contradict human intuitions, because human intuitions are really bad with probabilities. I’ll explain how it works and why it’s important for things like understanding medical results and risk management.

This week’s speaker will be Eva-Lise Carlstrom.

After the talk, we’ll have a group discussion to explore the ideas presented, and to share related thoughts, resources, and personal experiences.

This is an online event hosted on Zoom. You can register for it here:
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83123484794?pwd=0gqX0ZWeP4IasohAm7raoOsuWaOqrK.1